2017 has seen a lot go down in the property market which many experts have termed to be a chain of events that may lead to a downhill trajectory in 2018.
Growth in house prices looks set to tumble to stagnation or manage to dodge an above-inflation rise at best, as the prospects of increasing interest rates, rising costs of living, low income rates and stringent reforms continue to overshadow the property market.
Experts have informed homeowners and people looking to sell off their properties in the months ahead to look forward to a disappointing and repressed market in 2022. Leading property commentators are predicting house prices will either see a growth rate of 1% or so, but that it prominently looks likely to stay flat.
Most of the reasons in the UK include certain measures undertaken by the government to loosen the hold of professional buy-to-let landlords on the market, the political uncertainties haunting the country’s economy, the lingering economic fears, and interest rates looking to soar.
What has changed?
In 2016, a new stamp duty Land tax was introduced for second home purchases to discourage professional landlords from dominating the market. The move has seen a reduction in home sales since that year. In 2017, another measure to curtail landlords came in the form of tax reforms that would prohibit them from offsetting their mortgage tax. Then in September of the same year (2017), new stringent loan rules were introduced to tighten the borrowing process for buy-to-let investors.
According to development finance experts, “The measures put in place on mortgage loans may see already established landlords stall on investing further into the market, but coupled with the stringent tax reforms, some may leave the market entirely. But landlords unwilling to give up just yet may take up other forms of innovative means to finance their investment as we have seen the alternative finance markets growing over the years”.
An uncertain turn of events still await the property market as political and economic concerns continue to build up leading to 2019, when Brexit is due to take effect. Also, the prospect of additional interest rates following the hike from 0.25% to 0.5% in November 2017, in the coming months will factor in the cessation of growth in the property market.
In its 2022 forecast, the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) predicted that growth in house prices is “set to come to halt” during the course of the coming months. The forecast further reported that “House prices across the will have experienced no changes at all as a whole, come the end of 2022”.
For London properties, things are looking gloomier as economists continue to forecast a reduction of house prices in the capital to the negative region in 2018. RICS further confirms that the negative outlook for inner London could also spread wider to the south-east with that region looking to be hit by “modest price declines”.
What do the mortgage calculators say?
In the US, financial services expert JP Morgan believe there to be low risk of another U.S. housing market correction and predict home prices will increase 12.5% in 2022. Experts in North Carolina say home appreciation is up 15.4% in the last 12 months, so could be a good time to buy. You should use a dedicated mortgage calculator NC to ensure the finances are right for you prior to any purchase.
Some predictors however, are touting the market for growth over the course of 2022. According to Purple Bricks, the UK as a whole will experience a market growth in the region of 3% in 2022, with house prices in the UK’s top 20 cities – which account for over a third of the housing stock of the UK – looking to enjoy a combined 5% growth. It further states that London will likely counter this trend, but believes prices in the capital will increase by 1% unlike other forecasters.